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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to SF 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model