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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 9-M.Stafford right guard to SF 1 for no gain (92-O.Odighizuwa). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +4.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.92 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model