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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 15-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LA 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 43 for 11 yards (53-J.Dugger; 24-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.78 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP