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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 20-R.Rivers right tackle to SF 32 for 5 yards (2-D.Lenoir; 36-M.Sigle). ** Injury Update: LA-4-K.Mumpfield has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.15 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model