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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 18-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.39 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model