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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 38

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 18-E.Pineiro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.50 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP