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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 42-E.Evans punts 54 yards to SF 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 4-J.Cowing ran ob at SF 33 for 13 yards (5-K.Kinchens).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.74 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP