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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 51

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(:28) 15-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.78 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -1.64 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP