Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(2:54) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to SF 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 4-J.Cowing to SF 8 for 4 yards (2-J.McCollough).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.48 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.38 EP

KICK -0.92 EP

33% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
67% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model