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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to NYG 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.49 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP