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Dallas Cowboys

0-1 HC Brian Schottenheimer
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New York Giants

1-0 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 20:20 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DAL
47.4%
NYG
52.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: +0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.161 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Jaxson Dart (NYG): +0.010 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 23 16–30
–
NYG 25 18–32
Projected margin: NYG by 2 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

DAL

Malik Davis RB Out Hip

NYG

Malik Nabers WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 20
–
NYG 28

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:45 TD NYG (6:45) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 05:48 TD DAL (5:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – NYG 7
  • Q2 00:25 TD NYG (:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 9-I.Likely for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – NYG 13
  • Q3 07:04 TD NYG (7:04) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 9-I.Likely for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – NYG 20
  • Q3 00:41 TD DAL (:41) 33-J.Williams right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – NYG 21
  • Q4 07:31 TD NYG (7:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 26-D.Singletary for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 14 – NYG 27
  • Q4 05:26 TD DAL (5:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NYG-20-G.Newsome has returned to the game. PENALTY on DAL-33-J.Williams, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DAL 20 – NYG 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:59) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYG 17, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:05) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to NYG 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:38) 15-J.Stout punts 46 yards to DAL 15, Center-58-B.Mann, downed by NYG-54-M.Harrison.

    See the full breakdown →