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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYG 17, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP