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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 61

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 15-J.Stout punts 46 yards to DAL 15, Center-58-B.Mann, downed by NYG-54-M.Harrison.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.65 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 20, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model