Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 85

Washington Commanders 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(3:52) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.28 EP
54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 85, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model