Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(6:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to JAX 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-P.Washington to JAX 26 for -5 yards (50-R.Sunahara).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.56 EP
61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 79, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model