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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 34

What Actually Happened

(10:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to JAX 21 for 8 yards (27-C.Ransaw, 47-D.Gardeck). FUMBLES (47-D.Gardeck), RECOVERED by JAX-91-A.Armstead at JAX 22. 91-A.Armstead to JAX 24 for 2 yards (44-H.Fannin). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to JAX 22 for 7 yards (27-C.Ransaw).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP