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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 69

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to PHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 24 for 15 yards (56-K.Medrano).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.15 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP