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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 81

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to PHI 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 12 yards (18-T.Owens).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model