Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 31 for 22 yards (47-B.VanSumeren). PENALTY on DEN-6-T.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.07 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model