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Denver Broncos

0-1 HC Sean Payton
@
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Kansas City Chiefs

1-0 HC Andy Reid
Monday 2026-09-14 · 20:15 ET GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

DEN
45.1%
KC
54.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.155 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21 14–28
–
KC 22 15–29
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

DEN

No players on the report.

KC

Chamarri Conner S Out Knee
Josh Simmons T Out Back

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 10
–
KC 31

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:20 TD KC (8:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 03:53 TD DEN (3:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 1-E.Engram for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – KC 7
  • Q2 01:46 TD KC (1:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – KC 13
  • Q3 12:53 TD KC (12:53) 73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – KC 20
  • Q3 07:38 FG DEN (7:38) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 10 – KC 21
  • Q3 03:20 FG KC (3:20) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. DEN 10 – KC 24
  • Q4 14:43 TD KC (14:43) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-K.Walker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – KC 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 58%

    (11:35) (Shotgun) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to DEN 35 for 3 yards (96-E.Uwazurike; 9-T.Hufanga).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:51) 14-M.Araiza punts 55 yards to DEN 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 31-K.Abrams-Draine.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:40) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to KC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 29 for 7 yards (45-N.Adkins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 21%

    (11:14) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to DEN 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-22-J.Canady.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (9:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to KC 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 63 yards to DEN 4, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to DEN 23 for 19 yards (31-J.Bassa; 88-J.Briningstool).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:50) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:58) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to KC 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio. PENALTY on KC-22-J.Canady, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at KC 18.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:53) 73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 42%

    (9:56) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to KC 3, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-13-P.Bryant.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (7:38) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (3:20) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to KC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 27 for 15 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 34-J.Skinner). PENALTY on KC-13-C.Allen, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at KC 12.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 12 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:08) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 31 for 22 yards (47-B.VanSumeren). PENALTY on DEN-6-T.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 26.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:41) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Franklin (20-N.Williams) [56-G.Karlaftis].

    See the full breakdown →