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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 80

Denver Broncos 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to KC 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.95 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 37, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP