Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Denver Broncos 7

(2:51) 14-M.Araiza punts 55 yards to DEN 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 31-K.Abrams-Draine.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.61 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model