4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to DEN 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-22-J.Canady.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP