Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 73

Denver Broncos 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(13:40) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to KC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 29 for 7 yards (45-N.Adkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.32 EP
56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model