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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 13

Denver Broncos 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model