4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 9, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model