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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 68

Denver Broncos 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.36 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP