Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 62

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 9

(5:19) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 11, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.06 EP
70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model