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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 36

Washington Commanders 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 19-D.Stevens 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.12 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -2.04 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model