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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 12 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIN 4, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-16-B.Melton.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.77 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP