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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 17

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(:48) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.09 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP