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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 25

Green Bay Packers 9 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(13:56) 28-T.Smack 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.67 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model