4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 32

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(4:41) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to PHI 28 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis; 53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.78 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model