Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
How It Works → · How the go/kick/punt math works →
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Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%
(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 15 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(8:43) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to ATL 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(7:29) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to CAR 30, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-J.Coker to ATL 34 for 36 yards (16-J.Bailey; 89-C.Woerner). PENALTY on ATL-56-H.Perkins, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 34.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%
(4:33) 10-R.Fitzgerald 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 81%
(:46) 5-D.London left end to CAR 33 for -2 yards (55-D.Lloyd).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(13:12) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:40) 16-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to CAR 7, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-J.Coker ran ob at CAR 20 for 13 yards (22-Y.Abdullah).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(5:57) 10-R.Fitzgerald 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 91%
(1:11) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%
(4:34) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 4-T.McMillan (95-G.Dexter) [0-D.Deablo].
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Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 48%
(15:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to CAR 6, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 18-J.Coker.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(10:21) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 36 for 7 yards (28-A.Dillon).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 17 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%
(5:50) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 60 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(3:30) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 54 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(1:05) (Shotgun) 18-J.Strand pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to CAR 47 for 7 yards.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 31%
(14:04) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-W.Wagner. 13-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 13 for 5 yards (42-O.Burks).
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Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(13:19) 38-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to CIN 46, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 81-D.Meyers.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 17 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 35%
(10:15) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(8:47) 38-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to CIN 40, impetus ends at CIN 48, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 40 for no gain.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 50%
(4:47) 8-R.Rehkow punts 37 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 16Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%
(13:28) (Field Goal formation) 38-K.Kroeger to CIN 24 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CIN 25. 38-K.Kroeger pass incomplete short right.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 18Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%
(6:58) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to CIN 19 for -1 yards (97-D.Lawrence).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 13 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%
(1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:31) 8-R.Rehkow punts 58 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-W.Wagner. 13-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 10 yards (38-D.Ivey; 43-J.Giles-Harris).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(14:40) 38-K.Kroeger punts 35 yards to CIN 29, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-D.Meyers pushed ob at CIN 44 for 15 yards (87-F.Moreau). PENALTY on HOU-87-F.Moreau, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 44.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 33Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 78%
(12:32) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 40Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EPp(convert) 69% p(FG) 63%
(7:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 11 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%
(:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. PENALTY on HOU-66-K.Rutledge, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 65%
(12:21) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(10:02) 8-R.Rehkow punts 36 yards to HOU 41, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(8:30) 38-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to CIN 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 81-D.Meyers. PENALTY on HOU-56-J.Hill, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 15.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 16 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(5:17) 8-R.Rehkow punts 59 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-W.Wagner. 13-J.Noel to HOU 31 for 17 yards (29-K.Dugger; 37-P.Jules). PENALTY on HOU-17-J.Wayne, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 31.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 59 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 17-J.Wayne (27-J.Battle).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 39 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 65%
(2:16) 8-R.Rehkow punts 27 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 17 at the 19 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.53 EPp(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%
(:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at CIN 38 for -19 yards (52-C.Johnson).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(13:28) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to TB 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 5 yards (54-S.Williams). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 21.
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Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 41Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 57%
(11:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 78%
(7:17) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 85%
(4:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to TB 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%
(14:02) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(9:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(2:50) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 34 for no gain (95-E.Roberts).
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Q2 TB 4th & 12 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%
(:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%
(3:48) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q3 TB 4th & 15 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CLE 17, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.
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Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CLE 26, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(12:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to TB 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.
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Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%
(10:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 20 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.85 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%
(:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka.
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Q1 DET 4th & 15 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(7:16) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to BUF 21, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-G.Dortch.
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Q2 DET 4th & 18 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(1:51) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to BUF 7, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 18 for 11 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 17-T.Martin).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(:46) 39-T.Doman punts 43 yards to DET 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.
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Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 60%
(11:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to BUF 22 for 18 yards (37-J.Hancock).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 34%
(8:32) 39-T.Doman punts 40 yards to DET 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.
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Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:36) 3-J.Fox punts 51 yards to BUF 39, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-G.Dortch ran ob at BUF 39 for no gain.
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Q4 DET 4th & 18 at the 76 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.98 EPp(convert) 28%
(2:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa pushed ob at DET 44 for 20 yards (47-C.Benford).
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Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(13:34) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to NYJ 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-I.Williams MUFFS catch, recovered by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at NYJ 2. 37-Q.Stiggers to NYJ 5 for 3 yards (87-J.Sturdivant; 59-T.Hopper).
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 25%
(7:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to GB 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-S.Moore to GB 16 for 5 yards (47-A.Beck). PENALTY on GB-36-K.Hadden, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at GB 15.
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Q1 GB 4th & 15 at the 97Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(5:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to NYJ 37, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 45 for 8 yards (90-L.Van Ness). PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 39.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 25%
(2:43) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. ** Injury Update: GB-59-T.Hopper has returned to the game.
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Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(1:51) 19-D.Whelan punts 58 yards to NYJ 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-I.Williams MUFFS catch, recovered by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at NYJ 18. PENALTY on NYJ-18-I.Williams, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(:14) 14-A.McNamara punts 58 yards to GB 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-82-A.Smith.
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Q2 GB 4th & 13 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(4:09) 19-D.Whelan punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on NYJ-55-B.McGregor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 36%
(12:34) 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to GB 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers. PENALTY on GB-51-D.Dennis-Sutton, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at GB 6.
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Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(7:36) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to NYJ 30, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
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Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 60%
(:59) 19-D.Whelan punts 47 yards to NYJ 19, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-27-K.Oladapo.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(11:08) 19-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 69 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(4:49) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to GB 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-S.Moore pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 63 yards (82-A.Smith).
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Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 16 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%
(3:03) 28-T.Smack 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 50 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 32%
(1:20) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain (90-L.Van Ness).
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Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 50 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 32%
(:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 45 for -5 yards (52-K.Enagbare).
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Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 82%
(6:13) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 31%
(2:27) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left guard to KC 46 for 3 yards (95-C.Jones).
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Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%
(14:52) 3-S.Shrader 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 33Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 73%
(12:47) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q2 IND 4th & 17 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 77%
(9:50) 3-S.Shrader 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 69 yards to IND 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-22-J.Canady.
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Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 34%
(12:01) 92-K.Tonga and 64-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 92-K.Tonga up the middle to IND 45 for 3 yards (30-H.Wohler).
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Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(8:06) 66-M.Caliendo and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-J.Royals for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 25%
(5:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to KC 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 9 for 2 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
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Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%
(14:18) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 86%
(9:07) 17-D.Jones up the middle to KC 22 for 3 yards (56-G.Karlaftis; 95-C.Jones).
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Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 58 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:22) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to IND 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
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Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 51 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 27%
(:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to KC 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 16 for 6 yards (80-D.Burks; 29-C.Taylor-Britt).
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Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(13:11) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to JAX 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-P.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 28. 11-P.Washington to JAX 28 for no gain (34-J.Skinner).
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Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 28%
(10:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to DEN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(7:22) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to JAX 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-P.Washington to JAX 38 for 12 yards (51-Q.Robinson).
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Q1 JAX 4th & 18 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(4:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to DEN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 11 for -1 yards (25-R.Lane).
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Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(2:12) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to JAX 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%
(7:03) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to DEN 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 31-K.Abrams-Draine MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 13. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 16 for 3 yards (25-R.Lane; 46-R.Matiscik).
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Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(9:05) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 83%
(5:02) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 64%
(9:45) 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 66 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(4:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 40Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 63%
(11:44) 11-C.Dicker 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:41) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 21, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-87-G.Jennings.
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Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(4:10) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to LAC 17, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%
(:40) Direct snap to 2-A.Jeanty. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 1 for no gain (53-D.Phillips; 23-T.Jefferson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(13:21) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to LV 49, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
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Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(2:01) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(:42) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to LV 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.
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Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 41Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 60%
(:08) 14-M.Gay 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(14:03) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to LAC 26, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
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Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 65Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68%
(7:41) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to LV 36 for 1 yard (43-T.Dye).
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Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:40) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to LV 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Benson to LV 31 for 16 yards (30-A.Ingold).
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Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%
(12:34) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-25-D.Luter.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 61%
(8:26) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to LV 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.
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Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 74Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EPp(convert) 69%
(6:54) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 24, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 40 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 63%
(2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to LAC 6, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-81-D.Young.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 75%
(10:32) 47-R.Patterson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 79%
(:49) 2-M.Willis up the middle to SF 29 for 2 yards (96-J.Thompson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%
(10:00) 47-R.Patterson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(:02) 47-R.Patterson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(10:58) 48-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SF 29, Center-46-T.Addington, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: SF-25-J.Jones has returned to the game.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 61Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 29%
(3:55) (Punt formation) 48-B.Pinion FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 27, and recovers at MIA 28.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:41) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to SF 22, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-J.Cowing to MIA 42 for 36 yards (48-B.Pinion). PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 22.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 20 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(7:07) 48-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SF 35, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-J.Cowing to SF 36 for 1 yard (35-R.Taylor).
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Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 64 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(4:17) 15-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to MIA 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-9-B.Willis.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%
(11:08) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 76%
(5:08) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 53%
(:11) 19-B.Thorson punts 46 yards to CHI 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(14:14) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to MIN 36, Center-45-B.Gardner, downed by CHI-38-S.Thomas.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 74%
(10:40) 11-C.Wentz right guard to CHI 31 for 2 yards (90-N.Gallimore).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%
(8:23) 16-W.Reichard 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 74%
(3:31) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift to MIN 30 for 3 yards (22-H.Smith). Minnesota challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
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Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:34) 19-B.Thorson punts 62 yards to CHI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 14-K.Raymond ran ob at CHI 34 for 24 yards (42-A.DePaola).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(6:40) 19-B.Thorson punts 56 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-13-T.Felton.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(4:15) 19-T.Taylor punts 63 yards to MIN 3, Center-45-B.Gardner. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIN 14 for 11 yards (57-J.Sanborn).
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Q3 MIN 4th & 13 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(1:49) 19-B.Thorson punts 41 yards to CHI 24, Center-42-A.DePaola. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 30 for 6 yards (32-C.Chambliss; 29-Jac.Thomas).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(14:56) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to MIN 12, Center-45-B.Gardner, fair catch by 4-M.Price.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 79Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EPp(convert) 72%
(13:04) 19-B.Thorson punts 46 yards to CHI 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 14-K.Raymond ran ob at CHI 33 for no gain.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 8Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(8:30) 25-K.Monangai right guard to MIN 6 for 2 yards (95-C.Banks; 51-B.Cashman).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(6:26) 8-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (2-I.Rodgers), Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor, recovered by CHI-19-T.Taylor at MIN 12.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 21 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%
(1:12) 16-W.Reichard 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 12 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.91 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%
(:01) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner).
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Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(13:32) 30-R.Eckley punts 47 yards to NO 24, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.
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Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(9:55) 17-R.Wright punts 40 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by NO-38-J.Price.
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Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 47%
(13:38) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to BAL 6, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by NO-42-M.Reid.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 13 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 77%
(10:15) 33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-C.Granderson), Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
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Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%
(3:49) 10-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 33Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 73%
(11:05) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EPp(convert) 71%
(8:14) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to NO 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-B.Brown pushed ob at NO 32 for 9 yards (49-J.Higgins).
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Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%
(5:41) (No Huddle) 6-T.Shough up the middle to BAL 43 for 1 yard (14-K.Hamilton).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(1:32) 6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 55%
(11:20) 15-J.Stout punts 33 yards to LA 10, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(9:58) 42-E.Evans punts 38 yards to NYG 47, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 87-B.Berrios.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 19 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 55%
(5:43) 15-J.Stout punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-58-B.Mann, Touchback.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(14:48) 15-J.Stout punts 61 yards to LA 11, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-X.Smith to LA 22 for 11 yards (46-Z.Barnes).
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Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 92%
(7:46) 19-J.Winston right guard to LA 21 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald; 0-B.Young). (Virtual Measurement). Los Angeles Rams challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
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Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 38%
(3:21) 15-J.Stout punts 42 yards to LA 8, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-X.Smith to LA 6 for -2 yards (88-M.Fields).
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Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(:29) 34-D.Zvada 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
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Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(13:22) 42-E.Evans punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 12 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(10:07) 15-J.Stout punts 58 yards to LA 10, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-X.Smith to LA 14 for 4 yards (28-E.Campbell).
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Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%
(3:55) 34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
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Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%
(:07) 42-E.Evans punts 38 yards to NYG 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 87-B.Berrios.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(14:47) 15-J.Stout punts 78 yards to LA 17, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-X.Smith to LA 36 for 19 yards (31-N.Jones; 46-Z.Barnes).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 35Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 74%
(6:17) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 88-M.Fields (1-E.Forbes). Penalty on NYG-88-M.Fields, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(13:48) 3-T.Townsend punts 65 yards to PHI 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 85-B.Covey to PHI 28 for 23 yards (38-T.Burgess).
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Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%
(4:28) 1-C.Ward up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 16 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(9:37) 3-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to PHI 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 85-B.Covey to PHI 19 for 8 yards (36-J.Chestnut).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 43%
(6:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to TEN 41 for 5 yards (21-M.Robinson).
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Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%
(:03) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(10:17) 3-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to PHI 44, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-40-O.Pappoe.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 59%
(8:12) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(:07) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to TEN 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 17-C.Dike to TEN 19 for 9 yards (8-T.Bigsby).
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Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(12:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 14 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 96%
(2:00) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. PHI-98-J.Carter was injured during the play.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(13:31) 19-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to NE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-M.Jones to NE 23 for 9 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(10:31) 19-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NE 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-M.Jones to PIT 49 for 19 yards (55-C.Holcomb).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 39Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 60%
(4:15) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
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Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%
(14:18) 8-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69%
(12:12) Direct snap to 88-P.Freiermuth. 88-P.Freiermuth up the middle to PIT 41 for 2 yards (14-R.Spillane).
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Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(5:16) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to PIT 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 28 for 17 yards (48-N.Obiazor).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 44%
(1:56) 19-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
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Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(:52) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to PIT 35, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-48-N.Obiazor.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:12) 19-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to NE 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%
(3:55) 8-A.Borregales 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 51%
(2:22) 19-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NE 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-28-R.Spears-Jennings.
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Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 85%
(:46) 8-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PIT 4th & 16 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:12) 19-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to NE 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-M.Jones to NE 40 for 11 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 36%
(10:00) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to PIT 8, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.
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Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 63 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(3:33) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-J.Ashby. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 21 for 4 yards (21-K.Prunty).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 71 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 60%
(2:09) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NE 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 58% p(FG) 40%
(13:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 35 yards to SEA 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by ARI-84-E.Higgins.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 12 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(7:52) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to SEA 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 12 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to ARI 39, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 45%
(12:17) 12-B.Gillikin punts 31 yards to SEA 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 43%
(7:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to ARI 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. PENALTY on ARI-31-W.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at ARI 6.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 63%
(5:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to SEA 40, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at ARI 46 for 14 yards (43-K.Sharar). PENALTY on ARI-43-K.Sharar, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 46.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(1:16) 55-O.Oluwatimi and 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson up the middle to ARI 2 for -1 yards (28-A.Wingard).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to SEA 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 26 for 3 yards (25-Z.Collins; 89-H.Long).
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Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 49Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 73% p(FG) 40%
(:01) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock sacked at SEA 35 for -16 yards (3-B.Baker).
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Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%
(6:52) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(3:20) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to SEA 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. Penalty on SEA-1-J.Neal, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at SEA 20. Penalty on ARI-86-J.Brooks, Fair Catch Interference, offsetting.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(11:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SEA 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at SEA 30 for 12 yards (0-C.Simon).
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Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(1:15) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 74Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 59%
(8:15) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to DAL 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 9 yards (51-A.Kaho).
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Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(5:04) 17-B.Aubrey 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(13:22) 19-D.Stevens 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 14 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(5:13) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to WAS 21, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-J.Lane to WAS 35 for 14 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 84%
(12:55) 19-D.Stevens 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%
(7:24) 17-B.Aubrey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 78%
(1:57) 19-D.Stevens 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 42Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 58%
(13:27) 17-B.Aubrey 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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