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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model