Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- Cam Ward (TEN): -0.167 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- TEN defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.097 EPA/dropback in prior starts
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 2
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:28 TD TEN (4:28) 1-C.Ward up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – TEN 6
- Q2 12:53 TD PHI (12:53) 8-T.Bigsby up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – TEN 7
- Q2 01:55 TD PHI (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – TEN 7
- Q2 00:03 FG TEN (:03) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. PHI 14 – TEN 10
- Q3 08:12 FG PHI (8:12) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 17 – TEN 10
- Q3 01:03 TD TEN (1:03) 1-C.Ward scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – TEN 16
- Q4 02:00 FG TEN (2:00) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. PHI-98-J.Carter was injured during the play. PHI 17 – TEN 20
- Q4 00:14 TD PHI (:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 23 – TEN 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(13:48) 3-T.Townsend punts 65 yards to PHI 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 85-B.Covey to PHI 28 for 23 yards (38-T.Burgess).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%
(4:28) 1-C.Ward up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 16 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(9:37) 3-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to PHI 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 85-B.Covey to PHI 19 for 8 yards (36-J.Chestnut).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 43%
(6:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to TEN 41 for 5 yards (21-M.Robinson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%
(:03) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(10:17) 3-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to PHI 44, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-40-O.Pappoe.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 59%
(8:12) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(:07) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to TEN 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 17-C.Dike to TEN 19 for 9 yards (8-T.Bigsby).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(12:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 14 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 96%
(2:00) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. PHI-98-J.Carter was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown →
