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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 3-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to PHI 44, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-40-O.Pappoe.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.18 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model