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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 19

Tennessee Titans 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.04 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 19, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model