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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 14

Tennessee Titans 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. PHI-98-J.Carter was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.39 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 14, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model