Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Tennessee Titans 17

(:07) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to TEN 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 17-C.Dike to TEN 19 for 9 yards (8-T.Bigsby).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.78 EP
60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model