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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 3-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to PHI 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 85-B.Covey to PHI 19 for 8 yards (36-J.Chestnut).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.56 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model