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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to TEN 41 for 5 yards (21-M.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.66 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model