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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 3-T.Townsend punts 65 yards to PHI 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 85-B.Covey to PHI 28 for 23 yards (38-T.Burgess).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.71 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model