Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 1
Tennessee Titans 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0
What Actually Happened
(4:28) 1-C.Ward up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.87 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
- 38% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.60 EP
KICK
+1.90 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT
+0.14 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
