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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 7

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 10-R.Fitzgerald 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP