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Carolina Panthers

1-1 HC Dave Canales
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

0-2 HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 13:00 ET Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CAR
40.0%
ATL
60.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22 15–29
–
ATL 24 17–31
Projected margin: ATL by 2 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

CAR

Bobby Brown III DT Out Back
Patrick Jones II LB Questionable Back

ATL

Michael Penix Jr. QB Out Knee
Billy Bowman Jr. CB Out Achilles
Tua Tagovailoa QB Doubtful Oblique
Chris Lindstrom G Questionable Concussion
A.J. Terrell CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 34
–
ATL 3

Prediction missed by 33 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:51 TD CAR (10:51) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – ATL 0
  • Q1 04:33 FG CAR (4:33) 10-R.Fitzgerald 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 10 – ATL 0
  • Q2 05:57 FG CAR (5:57) 10-R.Fitzgerald 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 13 – ATL 0
  • Q2 01:11 FG ATL (1:11) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. CAR 13 – ATL 3
  • Q2 00:24 TD CAR (:24) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 19 – ATL 3
  • Q3 09:44 TD CAR (9:44) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 26 – ATL 3
  • Q3 03:08 TD CAR (3:08) (Shotgun) 18-J.Strand pass short right intended for 4-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Lloyd (8-Ja.Horn) at ATL 16. 55-D.Lloyd for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 33 – ATL 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%

    (10:51) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 15 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:43) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to ATL 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:29) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to CAR 30, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-J.Coker to ATL 34 for 36 yards (16-J.Bailey; 89-C.Woerner). PENALTY on ATL-56-H.Perkins, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 34.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (4:33) 10-R.Fitzgerald 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 81%

    (:46) 5-D.London left end to CAR 33 for -2 yards (55-D.Lloyd).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:12) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:40) 16-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to CAR 7, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-J.Coker ran ob at CAR 20 for 13 yards (22-Y.Abdullah).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (5:57) 10-R.Fitzgerald 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 91%

    (1:11) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (4:34) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 4-T.McMillan (95-G.Dexter) [0-D.Deablo].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 48%

    (15:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to CAR 6, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 18-J.Coker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:21) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 36 for 7 yards (28-A.Dillon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 17 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%

    (5:50) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:30) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 18-J.Strand pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to CAR 47 for 7 yards.

    See the full breakdown →