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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to ATL 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.71 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model