Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

(9:40) 16-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to CAR 7, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-J.Coker ran ob at CAR 20 for 13 yards (22-Y.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.29 EP
60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model