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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.20 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 3, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model