Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 34 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(3:30) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.28 EP
69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -2.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model